BLOOMBERG PREDICTED ITS BRASILIAN PENSION REFORM FORECAST (FROM BLOOMBERG LP) / CCJ - Comissão aprova a reforma da Previdência - 23/04/2019 - 15:06
SOURCE/VIDEOLINK:https://youtu.be/tgGEb0SJ37g
#BRAZIL ABOVE EVERYTHING,
GOD ABOVE EVERYONE!
Jair Bolsonaro
#CARNIVAL FIRST, PENSION REFORM LATER/Deputies approve report on Brazilian Pension Reform Proposal/
THE BRAZILIAN PEOPLE CALL ON NATIONAL CONGRESS! (ONGOING)
BLOOMBERG PREDICTED ITS BRASILIAN PENSION REFORM FORECAST ACCEPTANCE - In Brazil, It's Carnival First, Pension Reform Later (From Bloomberg LP US)
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Deputies approve report on Brazilian Pension Reform Proposal
After almost 9 hours of CCJ session, score was 48 to 18
State of Minas Gerais Newspaper
posted 23/04/2019 23:55
(photo: Pablo Valadares / House of Represnetatives )
After almost 9 hours of much discussion, bickering and rioting among deputies, the House Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) approved on Tuesday the report on the pension reform proposal presented by Deputy Marcelo Freitas (PSL) -MG).
KNOW MORE
• 18:44 - 04/23/2019 Riot in CCJ on Pension reform: 'Do not point the finger at me because I'm not a brat'
• 19:49 - 04/23/2019 Pension reform reporter at CCJ makes changes in opinion
The proposed amendment to the Constitution was delivered by President Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)
to the Congress on February 20. The PEC is one of the main actions of the government in these first months in the Planalto.
With the opinion of the CCJ, by 48 votes to 18, the MEPs gave their approval for the proposal to go to a Special Committee in the House. If it is also approved in this new phase, the text goes to the vote in the plenary of the House of Representatives.
Changes
Regarding text, the rapporteur of the SGP in the committee made the following changes in the text and should be excluded the sections dealing with:
- the end of the 40% fine of the Working Time Guarantee Fund (FGTS) for retirees who continue to work;
- the possibility of reducing by means of a supplementary law at the compulsory retirement age of the server, now in 75 years;
- the executive's exclusive prerogative to propose changes to the retirement rules; and
- the restriction that provided for the possibility of actions against Social Security only in the Federal Court.
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The comments do not represent the opinion of the newspaper and are the responsibility of the author. Messages are subject to prior moderation prior to publication
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Markets
The future of Brazilian stocks hinges on two words: Pension reform
Published Sat, Mar 30 2019 • 10:00 AM EDT Updated Sat, Mar 30 2019 • 10:19 AM EDT
Fred Imbert@foimbert
Sao Paulo’s Stock Exchange (Bovespa) headquarters.
Cris Faga | NurPhoto | Getty Images
Key Points
• Brazil’s benchmark stock index reached an all-time high earlier this month and is up 8.6 percent for the year.
• Investors in Brazil and across the world are betting that President Jair Bolsonaro will push through key changes to the social security system in Latin America’s largest economy.
• The stakes are high for pension reform in Brazil because an improvement could boost the country’s flagging economy and give it some stability. Failure to enact these changes could stymie economic growth.
Sao Paulo’s Stock Exchange (Bovespa) headquarters.
Cris Faga | NurPhoto | Getty Images
Brazilian stocks are off to a solid start in 2019, but whether they can continue to climb depends on one major policy shift: reforming Brazil’s overcrowded public pension system.
Brazil’s benchmark stock index — the Bovespa — reached an all-time high earlier this month and is up 8.6 percent for the year. The most widely followed ETF for Brazilian stocks — the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) — is up 7.3 percent.
Investors in Brazil and across the world are betting that newly minted President Jair Bolsonaro will push through key changes to the social security system in Latin America’s largest economy. But the path toward reform will not be a smooth one as the Bolsonaro administration, which already has a delicate relationship with top lawmakers, faces a lengthy legislative process.
The stakes are high because pension reform could boost the country’s flagging economy and give it some stability in the long run. Failure to enact the changes could stymie growth. The stock market’s gains could also evaporate as investors shy away from increasing risks in Brazil.
“We are on the bullish side in the sense that we are quite confident pension reform is going to be approved,” said Viccenzo Paternostro, partner at Legacy Capital, a Brazil-based hedge fund. “Pension reform is crucial because, otherwise, nobody is going to invest in Brazil because of fiscal issues, inflation and so on.”
“This is the main risk. If the pension reform is not approved, the outlook is very negative; nobody is going to invest,” Paternostro said.
Why Brazil needs pension reform
Brazil’s retirement age for men who contributed into the country’s pension system for 15 years is 65; for women, it is 60. However, men can retire earlier if they pay into the system for 35 years, while for women it’s 30 years. This has pushed down Brazil’s average retirement age to the early-to-mid 50s, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Brazil is also one of the most generous countries in the world when it comes to pensions. Men retiring with full benefits get 70 percent of pre-retirement earnings, while women get 53 percent. By comparison, workers in developed economies get full pensions averaging 53 percent of pre-retirement earnings at an average age of 65.5.
This system has raised concern over its sustainability and is viewed by many market participants as a brake on Brazil’s recovery from a massive recession.
Social security accounts for about a third of all government spending in Brazil and, in 2016, contributed to a record budget deficit. Brazil’s debt levels have also surged to around 75 percent of GDP.
Between 2015 and 2016, real GDP fell for eight straight quarters on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis before a rebound to start 2017. But the recovery stalled after the first quarter of 2017, with GDP growth failing to break above 0.5 percent since then.
“The government has had to put money to finance [the pension system], but the government cannot do that anymore because it is in a very fragile fiscal situation. The fiscal deficit was 7 percent last year,” said Rafael Amiel, director of Latin American economics at IHS Markit. “The government debt, as it is going right now, is not sustainable. It will eventually default if they don’t fix anything.”
Bolsonaro faces obstacles
Bolsonaro’s pension-overhaul proposal, which was submitted last month, aims to save the government more than 1 trillion reals — or about $270 billion — over a 10-year period. This proposal is far more ambitious than former President Michel Temer’s, which targeted 600 billion reals in savings. The measure would also implement a fixed retirement age for men and women at 65 and 62 , respectively.
However, Bolsonaro’s proposal faces a long legislative process. The measure will also likely be watered down during the process, setting up the market for disappointment.
“Timing is the key here, given the complex political process,” Morgan Stanley economists and strategists led by Arthur Carvalho wrote in a note earlier this month. “Although we believe reform will ultimately be approved, we think it will be delayed and a diluted version of what the market is currently pricing in.”
The bill was submitted to Brazil’s House Justice Commission on Feb. 20. If approved by the full House, it moves to the Senate. Any changes there would send it back to the House.
Morgan Stanley economists expect a House vote in August, while Goldman Sachs does not see pension reform turning into law before October.
“In general, if [Bolsonaro] moves forward with reforms meant to ensure public-sector sustainability and a reduction of the state’s role in the economy, there will be opportunities in key sectors,” said Jeffrey Lamoureux, senior country risk analyst for the Americas at Fitch Solutions. “However, we nonetheless believe the Bolsonaro administration will underdeliver on market expectations for pension reforms, which are an essential part of his economic agenda.”
The measure is also facing another problem: Bolsonaro himself. The right-wing president’s popularity has plummeted, with only 34 percent saying his government was doing a “great/good” job, according to pollster Ibope. That’s down from 49 percent in mid-January.
Bolsonaro won Brazil’s presidency last year in part by saying he would pass measures to reduce violence and curb widespread corruption. But since being elected, Bolsonaro has struggled to build the necessary coalition needed to move forward with those plans. Bolsonaro lost the support of Brazil’s top lawmaker, Rodrigo Maya, amid insinuations he was stalling on anti-corruption measures.
Brazilian stocks are down sharply this month. The Bovespa index has fallen 3.9 percent in March while the EWZ ETF has dropped 8.7 percent.
Nonetheless, many investors believe some sort of pension reform will get done and that will boost Brazilian stocks.
“Most people think some kind of reform is going to be approved because, over the past few years, the awareness of the population regarding the need to approve some kind of reform has broadened,” said Diney Vargas, managing partner at Sao Paulo-based hedge fund Apex Capital. “Companies will be hiring, people will have more jobs and people’s purchasing power will improve.”
But the process could go wrong, Vargas said. The plan could fail or, if the proposed savings are too low to change Brazil’s economic fortunes, “then we’ll have a problem.”
What to buy
Legacy Capital’s Paternostro says investors betting on pension reform should consider companies with “operating leverage that benefits from GDP growth,” including airlines.
Paternostro likes Azul Brazilian Airlines, noting higher demand in the wake of rival Avianca Brasil’s filing for bankruptcy protection. “Assuming demand is going to increase, it will be positive for the company.”
Azul’s New York-listed shares are up more than 60 percent in the past six months, outperforming the Bovespa index and EWZ fund by a wide margin.
Another stock on Paternostro’s radar is department store chain Lojas Renner. “Their operating leverage is quite high, and if consumption is going to increase, then it would lead to a very beneficial net-income outlook for the company,” he said.
Vargas said his hedge fund has positions in several consumer discretionary companies, including online marketplace Mercado Libre and Lojas Renner.
“Brazil is in a place where, if you approve the reforms, you’re going to see the economy growing faster,” he said.
SOURCE/LINK: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-19/in-brazil-it-s-carnival-first-and-pension-reform-later
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Photographer: Mauro Pimentel/AFP via Getty Images
markets
In Brazil, It's Carnival First, Pension Reform Later
By
Samy Adghirni
19 de fevereiro de 2019 20:03 BRT
• Pension reform due to arrive in Congress on Wednesday
• Little progress on bill expected until after March 6
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In this article
CCL
CARNIVAL CORP
53.75
USD
+0.68+1.28%
Brazil’s pension reform lands in Congress on Wednesday, but its arrival is largely symbolic. The Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) will only begin to move forward after the carnival holiday, set to finish on March 6.
House rules set the pace. The PEC’s first stop in Congress is the lower house’s Constitution and Justice Committee, or CCJ, which has yet to be formed. Negotiations for the composition of the CCJ are currently underway and, in the best case scenario, the parties will determine the members and the chair of the committee next week.
Lawmakers and technicians agree that, even if the composition of the CCJ is finalized before carnival, the chances of having a working session before the holiday are very remote.
The optimistic expectation of those in favor of pension reform is that the PEC will begin to advance right after carnival. But there is a concern that the government’s lack of negotiating experience could aide obstruction efforts by left wing opposition parties, such as the PT and PSOL.
If approved in the CCJ, the PEC will be referred to a special commission whose make-up will be decided by the speaker of the house, Rodrigo Maia. After it clears the committee stage, the legislation still requires approval by a three-fifths majority in two separate votes in both houses of Congress.
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#THE BRAZILIAN PEOPLE CALL ON NATIONAL CONGRESS!URGENT MATTER!
WIDE DISCLOSURE BY SOCIAL NETWORKS, PRESS AND PUBLIC SECTOR
COMMENT
by Dr. Gilberto Martins Borges Filho.’.
The Brazilian National Congress (House and Federal Senate) has exclusive authority of prosecuting and judging the President of the Republic in denunciation of involved in responsibility crimes.
It is also the exclusive authority of the Brazilian Congress to prosecute and prosecute the Ministers of the Federal Supreme Federal Court in crimes of responsibility (Article 52, subsections I and II of the 1988 Brazilian Federal Constitution).
In opening an formal investigation, which finds no basis (support) in the law, as well as exercising an authoritarian power, infringing against and violating the Democratic State of Law instituted with the 1988 Brazilian Constitution, the Supreme Ministers have committed a crime of responsibility, prone to suffer Impeachment.
As the National Congress has the constitutional prerogative to take measures of authoritarian acts, as recently carried out by the Brazilian Federal Supreme Court, in which two of its Ministers (Dias Toffoli e Alexandre de Moraes) and , in addition to extrapolating their powers, legislated for themselves many rights and privileges, representative segments of Brazilian society demanded of our Brazilian Legislators a prompt and effective measures involving the legislative branch.
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O Congresso Nacional (Câmara dos Deputados e Senado Federal) tem competência privativa para processar e julgar o Presidente da República nos crimes de responsabilidade. Também é de competência privativa do Congresso processar e julgar os Ministros do Supremo Tribunal Federal nos crimes de responsabilidade.(ART. 52, incisos I e II da CONSTITUIÇÃO FEDERAL).
Ao abrir inquérito de ofício, o que não encontra fundamento (respaldo) na lei, bem como exercendo ato de poder autoritário, indo contra e ferindo o Estado Democrático de Direito instituído com a Constituição de 1988, o Ministro do Supremo cometeu crime de responsabilidade, passível de sofrer Impeachment.
Como o Congresso Nacional tem a prerrogativa constitucional de tomar providências de atos autoritários como recentemente protagonizado pelo Supremo Tribunal Federal, no qual dois de seus Ministros além de extrapolar suas competências, legislaram em causa própria, os segmentos representativos da sociedade exigem dos legisladores uma providência imediata.
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